| So much for Carl Edwards or Greg Biffle making a | | | | much longer than the back, so even though it's a |
| run at the Nextel Cup Chase for the Championship. | | | | .75-mile course, cars get up to surprisingly fast |
| Neither could get close to the lead in California last | | | | speeds heading into Turn 1. Loose is fast at this joint, |
| weekend, so neither will be part of the 10-driver | | | | and traditionally guys who have sprint-track |
| Chase, a fact you'd never have convinced me to | | | | experience tend to excel here. Then again, Dale |
| believe back in February. After all, weren't the | | | | Earnhardt Jr. has won two of the last five events at |
| Roushketeers the best drivers in the business? | | | | this place (including a come-from-behind win here in |
| Apparently not. | | | | the spring), and no one's going to mistake him for a |
| Don't get me wrong; Matt Kenseth is still a cut | | | | sprint-car guy, so every such rule should be taken |
| above. But Mark Martin is hanging on by his fingernails, | | | | with a grain of salt. The track I consider closest to |
| and could be bumped by Kasey Kahne this weekend, | | | | Richmond for comparison purposes is Phoenix; while |
| while Edwards, Biffle and Jamie McMurray are officially | | | | Phoenix is longer (one mile) and more shallowly |
| on the outside looking in. I'll have a preview of the | | | | banked, setups tend to verge on similarity, and good |
| Chase next weekend, when all 10 slots are iron-clad, | | | | performers in the desert tend to overlap with good |
| but I suppose I ought to offer up a prediction before | | | | ones in Richmond. All that said, let's take a look at |
| we get to calling a winner in the Richmond race. Last | | | | the best bets in the last "regular-season" race of the |
| weekend I said I still thought Kahne would make the | | | | 2006 Nextel Cup season. |
| Chase, and that he'd supplant Martin, and I'll stand by | | | | Last Week: Sweet victory. Sort of. I didn't win the |
| that pick. Kahne was the class of the field winning | | | | straight-up bet, as Kahne beat the field handily at |
| Fontana last Sunday, and Martin isn't actually in 10th | | | | around 7-1, but I picked Kyle Busch in an upset |
| place any longer; Jeff Burton holds that dubious | | | | head-to-head matchup against Burton, and that |
| distinction. But when the dust settles late Saturday | | | | worked out just fine. So for the week, I finished up |
| night, I think Martin will have had enough problems to | | | | 0.61 units (on 1.5 units wagered), which isn't great, |
| cause him to miss the Chase. It's just that kind of | | | | but is officially better than a sharp oil gauge in the |
| year for Roush. | | | | eye. For the season that puts me at a profit of 16.62 |
| Meanwhile, there's the race itself. The Evernham | | | | units, and also gives me my fourth consecutive |
| team has been strong here the last few years; | | | | winning week. |
| Jeremy Mayfield (remember way back when he was | | | | Note: The following odds are very preliminary, and |
| an Evernham guy?) basically needed a win here in '04 | | | | the online books haven't posted their head-to-head |
| to make the Chase, and he got one, and last season | | | | wagers as of Friday evening (ET). I'll update this |
| Kahne posted his first career win at this track. They | | | | article on Saturday morning or afternoon with current |
| call Richmond the short track that drives like a | | | | odds, and make a H2H pick as well, so please check |
| superspeedway, because the front straightaway is | | | | back. |