| It's the AFC Championship Game of stock-car racing. | | | | month to ensure his spot. I think it can happen with |
| Okay, no, that's not exactly right. | | | | another Indy win; while everyone will be talking about |
| It's the Australian Open of NASCAR. | | | | Tony Stewart (+908) as the race favorite, I think |
| Kind of. | | | | Gordon can take heart in the fact that this isn't a |
| Anyway, the Brickyard 400 is a big deal. The vestigial | | | | true "downforce" track (a la Charlotte, Texas, |
| home of auto racing in America is the Indianapolis | | | | Atlanta, Michigan, et al), which is the kind of place |
| Motor Speedway (or "Brickyard"), where the Indy | | | | where Gordo continues to struggle. He's got it in him |
| 500 has been run for 745 consecutive years. Or | | | | to contend this week. |
| something like that; I'm not much of an | | | | Take Kasey Kahne (+516), 1/6th unit. Kahne qualified |
| open-wheel-racing guy. Beginning in 1994, though, the | | | | well at Pocono a couple weeks back (third), but had |
| real drivers came to this place (all right, that's a | | | | problems throughout the race, and came 31st. |
| ridiculously provincial thing to say, but hey, I'm writing | | | | However, I'm taking Kahne based on the fact that |
| about stock cars...), and this midsummer event quickly | | | | he's finished second and fourth here in this two |
| became the second-most-prestigious on the circuit, | | | | previous Brickyard attempts. Remember: this is a |
| behind only the Daytona 500. | | | | favorite track of #9's predecessor, Bill Elliott (+2794 |
| Now, don't get me wrong: the actual racing at this | | | | as part of Field), who won here in '02. And there's no |
| track (when it comes to stock cars) really isn't that | | | | question that one of my primary concerns from '05 is |
| great. It's a massive 2.5-mile venue (built in 1911), but | | | | now basically resolved: the Dodges can pretty well |
| its rectangular shape and relatively shallow-banked | | | | hang with Chevys and Fords, especially at |
| turns (only nine degrees, putting it roughly on par | | | | non-cookie-cutters. |
| with, say, the one-miler in Phoenix) mean that Nextel | | | | Take Kurt Busch (+2315), 1/6th unit. Busch hasn't |
| Cup drivers won't be able to go all out heading into | | | | shown much in a Brickyard; he's come 18th, 10th, 7th |
| the turns. Open-wheel Indy cars have lots more | | | | and 41st in his four tries at this track. But I love the |
| downforce than the relatively bulky NASCAR cars, | | | | fact that he came in second in both Pocono races, |
| and thus can zip in and out of the turns and not lose | | | | and the fact that he came here this weekend and |
| much speed. Not so, Nextel Cuppers. | | | | posted the fastest practice lap, and then went out |
| As such, it's extremely hard to pass during the | | | | and qualified third (Kahne will start fourth). I'm still |
| Brickyard 400, and we're likely to see the same kind | | | | mightily tempted to take Denny Hamlin (+898) |
| of long green-flag runs without much change in | | | | because if there's any equivalency at all between |
| running order as we saw two weeks ago in Pocono, | | | | success at Pocono and success at Indy, one would |
| and three weeks ago in New Hampshire. It's | | | | assume Hamlin would be a shoo-in to contend this |
| unfortunate, because this'll be one of the year's most | | | | weekend. The reason I'm picking Busch over Hamlin, |
| highly anticipated events, and probably get a | | | | though, is twofold: first, this is Hamlin's first Brickyard, |
| relatively big viewing audience for basic cable (a | | | | and there's a lot of pressure. Second, Hamlin showed |
| measure of how much excellent racing NBC expects | | | | his great Pocono strength before the race prior to |
| the Brickyard to generate is the fact that it's putting | | | | each of his victories by winning the pole in each and |
| this race on TNT). Nevertheless, the fact that Indy | | | | practicing about as fast as anyone else; this |
| shares some characteristics with Pocono (huge | | | | weekend, Hamlin practiced 10th and qualified 14th. |
| straightaways, shallow corners) means many teams | | | | That's not terrible, of course, but I don't think it |
| will run the same car this week as they did two | | | | qualifies as dominant. I may regret it, but I'm taking |
| weeks ago, and it gives us more data points when | | | | Busch instead. (Sunday Morning Note: Busch wrecked |
| considering who we should pick. Tony Stewart won | | | | his primary car in a post-qualifying practice, which |
| an emotional victory here last year after coming 7th | | | | explains why the odds are so high here. I'm not |
| at Pocono; Jeff Gordon won here two years ago | | | | allowed to change my pick here, but you are; taking |
| after finishing 5th at Pocono; Kevin Harvick won here | | | | Hamlin might be kinda smart at this point.) |
| in 2003 after coming 12th at Pocono; and Bill Elliott | | | | In this week's head-to-head matchup, take Gordon |
| won here in '02 after winning Pocono the previous | | | | over Stewart (+105), 1 unit. I hate to do it, because |
| race. Who should we pick this weekend? Read on, | | | | Smoke could easily win this race, but there aren't a |
| gentle car aficionado. | | | | lot of other choices out there. Kurt Busch would've |
| Last Race: All races should be as easy to handicap as | | | | been a nice bet over his brother Kyle, but since he's |
| the most recent Pocono race was. Denny Hamlin | | | | starting from the back in his backup car (the car that |
| easily cruised to his second consecutive Pocono | | | | cruised in Pocono is officially deceased), I'm too |
| victory, winning me a straight-up bet of 1/6th of a | | | | wussy to pick him. So it's Gordon over the defending |
| unit at +454, and Kurt Busch finished second, easily | | | | race winner; the good news is that he'll start in the |
| outdistancing the man I picked Busch over in a | | | | middle of the field, while Stewart will start toward |
| head-to-head bet for 1 unit, Dale Earnhardt Jr. For the | | | | the back. The bad news is that starting toward the |
| week, then, I netted a positive 1.04 units, and for | | | | back doesn't usually matter to Smoke. Both men |
| the season, I've profited exactly 16 units. | | | | talked confidently about their cars on Saturday |
| Take Jeff Gordon (+960), 1/6th unit. The | | | | evening, and I wouldn't be surprised to see them |
| pretty-pretty Gordon has won the Brickyard four | | | | dueling for the win. My main thought here is that |
| times in 12 tries (which is how many NASCAR races | | | | guys like Carl Edwards (+1267) and Clint Bowyer |
| have been held here); a 33% success ratio at any | | | | (+2794 as part of field), who Stewart wrecked at |
| track is pretty great. Gordon was very stout finishing | | | | Pocono two weeks ago, will do everything in their |
| third at Pocono two weeks ago, and one would | | | | power to not see Stewart win. We'll see if this |
| imagine he learned a lot. Gordon is precariously in the | | | | four-time-winning underdog (Gordon) can come |
| Chase for the Championship right now, at ninth in | | | | through. |
| points, but he'll have to produce over the next | | | | |