| Poor Tony Stewart. | | | | Kahne's hands. He's a very dangerous guy on the |
| Okay, I didn't really mean that. | | | | flatties, and this year he's won all three events at |
| Ha, Tony Stewart. | | | | Atlanta, Charlotte and Texas. There will be questions |
| The driver of the #20 Home Depot Chevrolet got | | | | at Talladega, and he's never driven well at |
| some well-deserved medicine last Saturday night, as | | | | Homestead. I do think in 2006 he'll have a chance at |
| his 18th-place finish doomed him to 11th place in the | | | | that final track to win the whole shooting match. |
| Nextel Cup standings, meaning he's on the outside of | | | | 1. Matt Kenseth (+350). This is the guy who can do it |
| the Chase for the Championship looking in. This from | | | | all. Flat-tracks, superspeedways, cookie-cutters; he's |
| a guy who told reporters last year that, "if I ever | | | | simply the man. He's legendary for his ability to qualify |
| miss the Chase, I should be fired." This also from a | | | | poorly and come to the front, except this year he's |
| guy who spent the summer wrecking his competitors | | | | not satisfied sitting around 10th place. He won at |
| and then telling the media that he wasn't being given | | | | Dover earlier in the year, was stout in all three |
| enough respect on the track. Yes, Stewart's come a | | | | restrictor-plate races so far in '06, has two top-fives |
| long way from the time he punched a reporter at | | | | in the cookie-cutters, finished fifth at Kansas and |
| Indianapolis Motor Speedway. But let's just say his | | | | third at Homestead last year...in short, he's got it all |
| maturity isn't quite on the lead lap yet. | | | | rolling this season. I think he takes his second career |
| Anyway, Stewart-free, the chase commences this | | | | Nextel Cup title. |
| weekend in Loudon. Here's a look at my favorites for | | | | Last Week: Richmond was berry-berry good to me. |
| the overall Chase, in reverse order: | | | | Our top selection, Mr. Harvick, won the race, and also |
| 10. Denny Hamlin (Vegas odds: +900). This is harsh, | | | | obviously won his head-to-head matchup with Tony |
| and maybe not accurate, because Hamlin has been | | | | Stewart. At a 1/6th of a unit bet on the straight-up, |
| terrific lately. But Stewart's teammate is a rookie, and | | | | and a one-unit bet on the head-to-head, we netted a |
| history tells us rookies don't win titles. And since the | | | | positive 1.14 units (on 1.5 units bet), bringing the |
| Chase began, that goes double. There's so much | | | | season total to a positive 17.76 units. That's our |
| pressure in every single event, it's foolish to think | | | | fifth-consecutive winning week, and our 18th winning |
| Hamlin won't toss in some horrible 40th-place finish at | | | | week out of 25 weeks for the year. |
| someplace like Talladega to hurt his chances. | | | | Take Kyle Busch (+695), 1/6th unit. Busch won here |
| 9. Mark Martin (+1800). I don't actually think Martin will | | | | in July by taking over late in the race and dominating |
| necessarily finish ninth in points by the end of the | | | | the final laps, and given how good he looked at |
| Chase, I just think he's got the ninth-highest chance | | | | Richmond last weekend (another flat track), it's not a |
| of winning the title. He'll probably finish third or fourth | | | | stretch to say Busch is a favorite at Loudon this |
| in points, because that's where he always seems to | | | | weekend. It's worth noting that this track tends to |
| finish. Martin has had major problems sealing the deal | | | | lend itself to season sweeps (as well as long, boring, |
| on races the past couple seasons. | | | | green-flag runs): Kurt Busch (+2347) swept here in |
| 8. Jeff Burton (+1200). Again, we're talking | | | | '04, and Jimmie Johnson (+1042) swept here in '03. I |
| consistency. Burton has gotten so much better this | | | | think the younger Busch has it in him to duplicate the |
| season, and he's won at Loudon three times, most | | | | feat. |
| of anyone else in the Chase. But he's a fader, by | | | | Take Kevin Harvick (+744), 1/6th unit. But if Busch |
| which I mean, he qualifies good, he runs up front | | | | doesn't do it, I think Harvick will be the guy who |
| early, and by halfway through the race, you're | | | | takes it away from him. Watching him play possum |
| wondering what happened to him. RCR has made | | | | on the final few laps at Richmond last weekend was |
| incredible strides, though. | | | | a thing of beauty, and the ease with which he |
| 7. Jeff Gordon (+700). Here's why I think people are | | | | zoomed by Busch was simply awesome. He took the |
| way over-estimating what Gordon will bring to the | | | | pole in qualifying and practiced second-fastest, and |
| Chase this year: he hasn't run well on the 1.5-milers. | | | | the Loudon winner almost always comes from the |
| Three of the next 10 events will take place at | | | | first seven rows, because it's so darned hard to pass. |
| Atlanta, Charlotte and Texas, and Gordon has seven | | | | Harvick's best finish here is a second place in the |
| finishes of 20th or worst at these three tracks in the | | | | spring of 2003, but he did finish fifth here just a |
| last two-plus seasons. | | | | couple months ago. |
| 6. Dale Earnhardt Jr. (+700). Consistency is the thing | | | | Take Brian Vickers (+4000), 1/6th unit. You could say |
| he's lacked through his entire stock-car racing career, | | | | I'm going out on a limb here. There are at least a |
| and while he's definitely gained the skills it takes to | | | | dozen guys you'd probably think to select here |
| make a 25th-place car into a top-10 finisher, I don't | | | | instead of Vickers, and considering the kid's never |
| think he's going to threaten to win enough events | | | | won a Nextel Cup race, and is a lame duck in the |
| over the next two months to threaten to win the | | | | #25 (as he'll be moving on to another team, and |
| whole shooting match. | | | | Casey Mears (+2690 as part of the field) will take |
| 5. Kyle Busch (+900). Hot-headed? Yup. Arrogant? A | | | | over for this Hendrick team), maybe you think I'm a |
| little. On a roll? Absolutely. The younger Busch has | | | | little nutso here. But this is the thing: back in July, |
| eight top-10 finishes in the last 10 races, including a | | | | Vickers was obviously the day's dominant car. He led |
| win, three seconds and a third. He's going to be hard | | | | 34 laps, and was cruising, but got caught up behind |
| to beat this weekend at Loudon (where he already | | | | some cars on a restart, banged with Clint Bowyer |
| won this summer), and he's proven to be a very | | | | (+3000), and was never the same. After that, Kyle |
| good cookie-cutter driver as well. This is the | | | | Busch and Tony Stewart (+1370) duked it out for |
| beginning of guys I think have a real shot at winning | | | | supremacy, before Stewart got punted by Ryan |
| the title, if everything breaks right. | | | | Newman (+3000), which started Smoke's precipitous |
| 4. Kevin Harvick (+550). How can you not be | | | | downfall. (See how everything in this article comes |
| impressed with Harvick? He's won three races in '06, | | | | full-circle?) Anyway, there's absolutely no pressure on |
| after winning one in the last two seasons combined. | | | | Vickers, he qualified 12th (which is close enough to |
| He ran an incredibly smart and strategic race last | | | | come forward), and if he wins, it makes our |
| weekend in Richmond, hanging out behind Kyle Busch | | | | wagering season. |
| until the very end of the race, and then smartly | | | | In the head-to-head bet of the week, take Harvick |
| passing him after a lovely game of possum. He's on | | | | over Tony Stewart (-165), 1 unit. I'm going back to |
| the pole this weekend, and the RCR cars sure do run | | | | the same well. This bet's a little less of a sure thing |
| well on the superspeedways. Phoenix is also great for | | | | than the identical one I made in Richmond last |
| him, but those darned cookie-cutters. | | | | weekend. That one looked pretty sweet because |
| 3. Jimmie Johnson (+400). He's slumping at the wrong | | | | Stewart was driving his backup car after an |
| time again. Can we win his first points title? Of | | | | in-practice wreck (and the fact that it was an |
| course. Will he? I think not. Johnson is so incredibly | | | | impound race didn't hurt; Smoke literally got no time |
| good at saving bad days, and turning them into | | | | in the car on the Richmond track before the green |
| decent finishes, and that's a hugely important skill in a | | | | flag dropped). This weekend, Stewart qualified poorly |
| Chase where consistency is king. But the edge | | | | (32nd), but has practiced amazingly well since: he was |
| seems to be off of the #48 team. His flat-track | | | | second to Harvick in Saturday morning's practice, and |
| program (see: New Hampshire, Phoenix and | | | | third in Happy Hour. (Meanwhile, Harvick has been |
| Martinsville) isn't what it's been in the past, and while | | | | fastest every single time the cars have hit the |
| he'll be the fave at Talladega, J.J. has yet to prove | | | | pavement.) This is less of a sure thing, and the odds |
| he's Mr. Clutch. | | | | show it, but Happy is still the clear race favorite, so |
| 2. Kasey Kahne (+1000). The schedule plays right into | | | | I'll take him to keep the #20 in his rearview. |